Why Fires, Not Farms, Are Now the Top Driver of Tropical Forest Loss

In 2024, fires overtook agriculture as the leading cause of tropical primary forest loss for the first time on record, accounting for nearly 50 percent of the loss compared with a recent-year average of 20 percent (WRI: Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024). That single shift should change how every conservation practitioner thinks about protecting tropical forests.

For decades, the narrative was clear: cattle, soy, and palm oil were the primary drivers of deforestation. We built strategies around supply chains, certification, and consumer pressure. But the data now points to a different, messier culprit—fire. And if we don't adapt, our efforts may be too late.

What Exactly Is 'Primary Forest' and Why Does It Matter?

When we talk about primary forests, we mean ancient, undisturbed forest ecosystems—the kind that have been growing for centuries without major human interference. These are the forests that harbor the most biodiversity and store the most carbon. Globally, primary forests cover at least 1.18 billion hectares, about one-third of reported forest area (FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025). They are irreplaceable.

But in 2024, we lost 6.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest—an area nearly the size of Panama, at a rate of about 18 soccer fields per minute (WRI: Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024). That's nearly double the 2023 total, which was already a crisis. The question is: what's driving this loss?

The Paradigm Shift: Fire Overtakes Agriculture

For years, agricultural expansion was the leading cause of tropical deforestation, accounting for more than 96 percent of deforestation in the tropics (WRI Global Forest Review: 2023 tree cover loss). But in 2024, fires became the leading cause of tropical primary forest loss—a first on record. Fire-driven primary forest loss in Brazil increased more than sixfold from 2023, and Brazil accounted for 42 percent of all tropical primary forest loss in 2024 (WRI: Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024).

This is not just a natural disaster. These fires are often set deliberately to clear land for agriculture or pasture, but they escape control and burn into standing forests. In Bolivia, fire-driven primary forest loss rose 200 percent in 2024, making it the second-largest contributor globally (WRI: Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024).

What does this mean for conservation? It means that combating deforestation isn't just about supply chains anymore. It's about fire management, climate adaptation, and land-use planning that prevents fires from escaping.

Why the EUDR Alone Won't Save Forests

The European Union's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is a landmark law that requires companies to prove that their products are deforestation-free. It covers seven commodities: cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee, and rubber (EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR)). It's a powerful tool, but it's built on the assumption that deforestation is driven by agricultural expansion. If fires are now the leading cause, then the EUDR may be fighting the last war.

Consider this: the EUDR aims to cut at least 32 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year linked to EU consumption (EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR)). But in 2024, fire-driven primary forest loss in Brazil alone—much of it not directly linked to EU supply chains—contributed to a global total of 6.7 million hectares lost. The EUDR can't stop a fire that starts in a cattle pasture and burns into a national park.

Does that mean the EUDR is useless? No. It's a necessary step, but it's insufficient. We need to complement it with fire prevention, early warning systems, and landscape-level planning.

What Conservation Can Do: Fire-Smart Landscapes

So, what should we do? First, we must stop treating fire as a separate issue from deforestation. In the tropics, fire is a tool for land clearing, but it's also a symptom of a hotter, drier climate. The 2023 fire season in Canada was the worst on record, with a five-fold increase in tree cover loss due to fire between 2022 and 2023 (WRI Global Forest Review: 2023 tree cover loss). That's a boreal forest, not tropical, but it shows that fire is a global threat.

Second, we need to invest in fire management in tropical countries. This means controlled burns, firebreaks, and community fire brigades. It means working with farmers to reduce accidental fires. And it means enforcing laws against illegal burning.

Third, we should support restoration of degraded forests, which are more fire-resistant. The Bonn Challenge aims to restore 350 million hectares of degraded and deforested land by 2030; more than 210 million hectares have been pledged so far (IUCN Bonn Challenge press release). Restored forests are not only more resilient to fire, but they also sequester carbon and support biodiversity.

The Role of Certification and Market Pressure

Certification schemes like FSC and PEFC have been important for promoting sustainable forestry. FSC certifies more than 160 million hectares of forest, and PEFC certifies almost 300 million hectares (FSC UK Facts and Figures; PEFC Facts and Figures). But these schemes are mostly relevant to timber and paper products, not to fire-driven deforestation.

However, market pressure can still help. When companies commit to zero-deforestation supply chains, they often invest in monitoring and fire prevention in their sourcing areas. For example, the EUDR's due diligence requirements might force companies to trace their palm oil to specific plantations, and if those plantations are near fire-prone areas, they may take steps to mitigate risk.

Quick Tip

If you're a conservation practitioner, start mapping fire risk in your project areas. Use satellite data to identify where fires are likely to escape, and work with local communities to create firebreaks and early warning systems.

The Bottom Line

The fact that fires are now the leading cause of tropical primary forest loss is a wake-up call. We can no longer rely solely on supply-chain interventions. We need a fire-smart approach that integrates fire management into all conservation strategies. If we don't, we risk losing the very forests we're trying to save.

Sources

• WRI: Global Forest Loss Shatters Records in 2024 - https://www.wri.org/news/release-global-forest-loss-shatters-records-2024-fueled-massive-fires
• FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025 - https://www.un-redd.org/post/global-deforestation-slows-forests-remain-under-pressure-fao-report-shows
• EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) - https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_en
• IUCN Bonn Challenge press release - https://iucn.org/press-release/202511/germany-and-iucn-celebrate-15-years-bonn-challenge-worlds-largest-restoration
• WRI Global Forest Review: 2023 tree cover loss - https://gfr.wri.org/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2023
• FSC UK Facts and Figures - https://uk.fsc.org/what-is-fsc/facts-and-figures
• PEFC Facts and Figures - https://pefc.org/discover-pefc/facts-and-figures